Flawed Agricultural Data: The Permanent Cause of Wheat Shortages

Web Desk

LAHORE: Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Kisan Wing General Secretary Ejaz Shafi has expressed deep concern over contradictions in government wheat production data and poor planning, warning that the country will face a new crisis driven by unverified official information rather than an actual shortfall.

In a press statement, Shafi pointed out that while the federal government claimed a wheat production of 29.8 million tonnes for the year 2026—up from 28.4 million tonnes the previous year, alongside existing reserves of over two million tonnes—it initially maintained that domestic stocks were sufficient. However, he noted that subsequent demands from provinces for 2.2 million tonnes led the government to decide on importing one million tonnes, exposing severe flaws in official estimation and planning mechanisms.

Shafi highlighted that Crop Reporting Services estimated a production of 29.8 million tonnes from 9.48 million hectares whereas SUPARCO’s satellite-based assessment put the figure at 27.48 million tonnes from 8.84 million hectares. Ejaz Shafi maintained that against government statistics, independent market estimates placed the actual harvest closer to 26 million tonnes. He argued that traditional calculation methods are increasingly unreliable due to localized yield variations.

Criticizing the current framework, the PTI Kisan Wing leader stated that farmers bear the brunt of these miscalculations. He noted that due to a lack of storage facilities and capital immediately after harvest, growers were forced to sell wheat at 3,000 to 3,200 rupees per 40 kilograms, only for prices to surge later. Meanwhile, he added, farming communities continue to struggle under skyrocketing input costs, citing significant hikes in DAP fertilizer, urea, and tube-well electricity tariffs.

Concluding his statement, Shafi called for the immediate establishment of a “National Wheat Information and Policy Council,” comprising farmers’ representatives, CRS, SUPARCO, LIMS, PASSCO, provincial governments, agricultural economists, and independent market experts, to ensure that future import and export decisions are backed by reliable data rather than ad-hoc policymaking.